"Get your weight guessed right here! Only a buck! Actual live weight guessing! Take a chance and win some crap!"
--Navin R. Johnson, The Jerk
I don't know if I've mentioned it lately, but I am running a marathon in just a few weeks.
Oh, I did?
One of my new favorite things to obsess over is how fast I am really going to be able to run this race. For my first marathon, I trained to finish, which I did, in 4:57. This time, I want to set a PR, and to put as much time between last year's finish and this year's as possible. But how fast can I run it? The trouble is, any educated predictions are all over the place.
Yasso 800s: The theory is, if you run 8-10 800s a few weeks before your marathon, the time in minutes and seconds will be your marathon finishing time. I ran 800 meter repeats last night, and as an added challenge, had to run them on the street since there was a soccer game rudely interrupting my planned track workout. Even with some sloping hills, my average time was less than 4:00. I really don't think that's going to happen.
So, what about past race performances?
5K: My most recent 5K was a PR of 25:13. I ran it under near ideal conditions. The course was almost completely flat and the weather was gorgeous. This predicts a finishing time of 4:05:50.
10K: Longer distance, tougher conditions. It was July 4, so it was pretty hot and humid. And the course was very hilly and challenging. I finished in 54:59, which predicts a marathon finish of 4:18:02.
Trisko: Even longer distance, even tougher conditions. The course itself wasn't too bad. There was a big, steep hill at mile 2, a steep downhill at around mile 5, and one of those long, gradual, soul-sucking uphills at mile 12. The real challenge was the weather. Pelting rain, strong winds, and catlicking snow in May made that 13.1 miles really challenging. McMillan prediction? 4:23:38.
I don't know, Internet. My goal right now is 4:30, and that seems daunting. What's your prediction? The course is mostly flat, and I am hopeful for nice fall running weather.
In other news, the fine folks at Runners' Lounge featured me for Take The Mike Friday! I am really flattered to have been asked, and this massive wave of publicity makes me think again of the wisdom of Navin R. Johnson.
Navin: The new phone book's here! The new phone book's here!
Harry: Boy, I wish I could get that excited about nothing.
Navin: Nothing? Are you kidding? Page 73 - Johnson, Navin R.! I'm somebody now! Millions of people look at this book everyday! This is the kind of spontaneous publicity - your name in print - that makes people. I'm in print! Things are going to start happening to me now.